Here are the top 10 Google search results for "betting suspended transfer", when I set the custom range to before December 31, 2015.
- June 20, 2015: Bookmakers suspend betting on Charlie Austin moving to West Ham from QPR. (Charlie Austin stayed at QPR until January 2016, at which point he joined Southampton.)
- June 17, 2015: Bookmakers suspend betting on Petr Cech moving to Arsenal from Chelsea. (Cech signed with Arsenal on June 29.)
- Same as #1
- Link to Sky Bet's current specials.
- July 16, 2015: Bookmakers suspend betting on Charlie Austin moving to Newcastle from QPR.(Charlie Austin stayed at QPR until January 2016, at which point he joined Southampton.)
- August 30, 2014: Bookmakers suspend betting on Radamel Falcao moving to Real Madrid from AS Monaco. (Falcao joined Manchester United on loan for the season instead.)
- June 28, 2013: Bookmakers suspend betting on Yohan Cabaye moving to Monaco from Newcastle. (Cabaye stayed at Newcastle, then joined PSG in January 2014.)
- July 30, 2014: Bookmakers suspend betting on Romelu Lukaku after he hints at a "new future" on social media, with Everton move expected from Chelsea. (Came true that day.)
- Link to Paddy Power's current specials.
- July 1, 2015: Bookmakers suspend betting on Paul Pogba joining Chelsea. (LOL.)
A search for "betting suspended sack" turns up Jose Mourinho at the end of last October (he was only sacked a month and a half's worth of bad results later) and Martin O'Neill in July 2015 (he remains in charge of the Republic of Ireland national football team), among others. A search of this very website turns up Fernando Torres in the summer of 2010, but as we know, he didn't actually join until half a season, more injury woes, and a last gasp helicopter ride later.
Point is, bookmakers suspending betting on something doesn't mean anything. Well, it does mean that someone's (probably) betting large on one side or another, but we never truly know, do we?
As far as I can tell, PaddyPower were the culprits for yesterday's Conte sacking madness.
In just a couple hours, this spread to all corners of the football universe. Just about everywhere you looked, this was making headlines. In an industry-wide gamble, other betting houses starting with Betway and Sky Bet followed PaddyPower's lead, as new bettors were following the supposed "smart" money. The echo chamber feedback loop was in full effect and there was no stopping it until it burned itself out.
Bookmakers suspended betting on Antonio Conte sacking after string of bets following a text-message rumour. Told there's little in it.— Oliver Todd (@oliver_todd) October 13, 2016
Antonio Conte is not going anywhere. Reports about him set to leave Chelsea are bullshit. #CFC— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 13, 2016
I'm told that no notice should be taken of some bookies suspending betting on Conte leaving Chelsea. Any suggestion he is is nonsense— Matt Law (@Matt_Law_DT) October 13, 2016
Im obviously not saying Conte will never leave Chelsea or never be sacked, there is just nothing happening right now despite bookies' odds— Matt Law (@Matt_Law_DT) October 13, 2016
Reasonable voices, with proper sources. I realize that we're all getting a bit stir crazy without club football these past two weeks, but let's not eschew all semblance of common sense just yet. There's little reason to believe that Conte's job is less secure today than it was tomorrow or the day before or the day before that. Of course, no Chelsea head coach's job is ever completely safe — which does lend a tiny bit of credibility to all this Conte betting nonsense — but I think we can rest assured the Conte's isn't in danger at the moment.