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How have late goals affected Chelsea's 2013/14 Premier League season?

Scott Heavey

A couple years ago, Graham looked at how late goals had affected Chelsea's 2011/12 season.  While the overarching narrative back then was that we had conceded lots of late goals (holla at yo' boy, AVB!), Graham found that if the final whistle had blown after 80 rather than 90 minutes, Chelsea would not have been much better off.  Our problems that season went far beyond just the last 10 minutes of matches, while the late goals narrative would rear its ugly head more than once in the subsequent months.

Following (at least until the dubious goals panel decide otherwise) John Terry's late, late, LATE winner on Saturday, it seemed like a good time to revisit this exercise.  Looking at Premier League matches only for a level the playing field across seasons; here's how Chelsea's current season would look if matches ended after 80 minutes:

DRAWS TO WINS (+2pts each):
Feb. 11 - West Bromwich Albion (A):  1-1 draw to 1-0 win

LOSSES TO DRAWS (+1pt each)
Dec. 7 - Stoke City (A):  2-3 loss to 2-2 draw

WINS TO DRAWS (-2pts each)
Oct. 6 - Norwich City (A): 3-1 win to 1-1 draw
Oct. 27 - Manchester City (H): 2-1 win to 1-1 draw
Feb. 22 - Everton (H):  1-0 win to 0-0 draw

DRAWS TO LOSSES (-1pt each)
Nov. 9 - West Bromwich Albion (H):  2-2 draw to 1-2 loss

On the positive half of the ledger: three wins and a last-gasp draw.  On the negative: one loss and one draw.  Even before Terry's winner and despite Anichebe's late equalizer, the odds were ever in Chelsea's favor, as we've netted four points (and a +3 goal differential) in the last 10 minutes of matches in the Premier League this season.

Let's see how that compares to the last two seasons:

  • 2011/12:   0 points gained or lost (net; -1 under AVB, +1 under RDM)
  • 2012/13:  2 points lost (net; +2 under RDM, -4 under Interim)
    • Late winners (+2pts) from Fernando Torres (Reading, home), Ashley Cole (Stoke City, home), Juan Mata (Manchester United, away), Frank Lampard (Aston Villa, away)
    • Late equalizers (-2pts) conceded to Pablo Hernandez (Swansea, away), Adam Le Fondre (Reading, away), Luis Suarez (Liverpool, away), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Spurs, home)
    • Late losing-goals (-1pt) conceded to Mohamed Diamé (West Ham United, away), Moussa Sissoko (Newcastle, away)
  • 2013/14:  4 points gained (net)

Yey, Mourinho!

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