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On the new TV deal and Chelsea's transfer tendencies

DONETSK, UKRAINE - JUNE 19:  Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich looks on during the UEFA EURO 2012 group D match between England and Ukraine at Donbass Arena on June 19, 2012 in Donetsk, Ukraine.  (Photo by Christopher Lee/Getty Images)
DONETSK, UKRAINE - JUNE 19: Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich looks on during the UEFA EURO 2012 group D match between England and Ukraine at Donbass Arena on June 19, 2012 in Donetsk, Ukraine. (Photo by Christopher Lee/Getty Images)
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A few days ago we looked at the Swiss Ramble's assesment of the new television deal that the Premier League negotiated. As this was a pretty ridiculously detailed assesment (as are all of their works), I really have nothing to add to it that isn't already included in the piece. I would, however, like to assess what this may mean in one regard for Chelsea. What I'm curious about today is, just how will this increased television money affect Chelsea in the transfer market going forward?

First and foremost, this will obviously increase the overall amount available funds Chelsea have to put toward potential transfers under FFP. FFP is designed to limit the amount that clubs can spend to what they make, and all EPL clubs will now have between 26-53% more domestic television income at their disposal to spend beginning in 2014. For Chelsea, this is no small sum of money, as teams closer to the top of the table will be looking at closer to the 53% increase. According to the findings of the Swiss Ramble, Chelsea will now be working with about 30 million additional pounds annually from what we were averaging on the last deal, assuming a regular place in the top 3.

So what does that actually mean as far as transfers go? When taking wages into consideration, that's basically the addition of one Ramires and his entire 5 year contract worth of wages paid for every single year because of the new tv deal. That's good...right? It most certainly is. More talent will always help us perform better against clubs without the ability to add the same amount of talent, that should go without saying.

Unfortunately, there will be negative effects for Chelsea as well. Every other team in the Premier League gets this money as well. Robbing talent that has proven itself in the Premier League should become a lot more difficult to do, as frankly this extra income for the "smaller" clubs is going to make it far easier for them to resist selling their top talent to survive. Clubs will still sell if it makes sense, but it will be harder to pressure them into it with the increased money at their disposal.

It's worth noting that no Premier League teams will see that increased revenue for this upcoming summer, as the new deal will not go into effect until the 2013/14 season. Teams that have needed to sell to fund their club in the past will still be in the same boat this transfer window. They may not need to sell quite as much now though, as they can see an increase in overall income on the horizon. Players with several years left on their deal might be easier to appease going forward, as they'll have more money to give them in a few years time.

Because of this, I'd expect to see a trend begin to develop going forward. Premier League players are going to become increasingly more expensive relative to foriegn talent, and we'll likely see even less of Chelsea buying Premier League players than in the past because of this. Whomever finishes dead last in the Premier League under the new structure will still make more domestic tv money than any La Liga club outside Barca or Real, so they are going to have significantly more leverage in the ability to keep their players than basically any other club in the world. Other leagues won't see this additional leverage, as they aren't going to be benefitting from the additional windfall. Established foreign players have been better value of late than established domestic players, and that trend should only magnify with increased tv money.

With the homegrown player rule not looking likely to change anytime soon, this is also going to likely result in an increased amount of youngsters being poached from other academies. Clubs competing in Europe can't afford not to use those 8 roster slots, but filling them with experienced domestic players is going to become increasingly expensive. Developing our own depth is going to become more important than ever going forward.

This new TV deal is one additional reason a target like Victor Moses makes sense this summer. Moses is young and Moses is homegrown. Knowing that we'll need homegrown players going forward and assuming the relative cost of those players is going to increase, making a move for a guy like Moses before the new money makes it harder to do starts to make even more sense. Victor Moses might not be a glaring need at the moment, but the interest makes a lot more sense when you start thinking a few years down the line.

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