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I imagine most of you are getting bored of this, but since I'm not, let's press on. Many of you will have noticed that red cards made no difference in the first incarnation of win probability, which is obviously not true. Teams typically play 1.1 goals per game worse when they're down by a man, which we can assume (probably incorrectly) is split halfway between the attack and defence, at -0.55 goals each.
A couple of tweaks to the spreadsheet, and we can now calculate more accurate win probabilities for the Sunderland-Birmingham and the Liverpool-Arsenal matches. Why not compare and contrast?
Sunderland-Birmingham original
You'll notice some cosmetic differences, as well. I'm just fiddling around with the graphs to get something that looks nice while being fully automated, so it might be a while before I settle down on fonts, etc. Note that we still don't have home field advantage built in. Perhaps next round!