Yeah, I like my new toy. Sue me.
About a week ago I decided to look at ways of measuring points earned vs. points expected, and essentially took expected points for any given match based on estimates of the respective teams' attacking and defensive abilities, as well as including home field advantage. I gave total numbers for the season so far (West Brom were runaway winners in terms of over-performance), but there wasn't an easy way of communicating all the data I had to hand. Now there is!
Figure 1: Points earned above/below expected through week seven. Powered by Tableau.
Some quick notes after the jump.
First, a note on nomenclature and how to read the results: If a team is playing at home, the result is to the left of the score: e.g. W 2-0 for Chelsea vs. Arsenal; if they're away it's to the right: e.g. 1-2 W for Blackpool at Liverpool.
You can mouseover any individual game to see the opponent, result, and points gained/dropped. You can also sort ascending/descending by any column. In the 'Total' column, which is just a summation of all the values to date, I've included a related number - strength of schedule. This is a figure (which ignores home vs. away, incidentally), that I've been including in the weekly power rankings, and essentially measures how far above or below league average the opposition has been. Interestingly, the teams with the two weakest schedules have been Fulham and Manchester United. Sorry for bursting your bubble, Fergie, but Chelsea have had to play against two legitimitely elite teams now, while United have faced... Liverpool. Oh.
Speaking of Liverpool, they totally unsurprisingly win the prize for most underperforming team in the league, closely followed by Everton. There's just got to be something about the northwest this year, as both traditional Merseyside powerhouses have been involved in flirtations with relegation spots when they'd expect to be about ten places higher. West Bromwich Albion and Blackpool have caused some surprises, Blackpool claiming top spot after their 2-1 win over the Reds at Anfield. Chelsea, meanwhile, have a positive result (i.e. they're doing better than expected despite a relatively easy fixture list), but have trouble generating upsets when they're clearly the best team in the league right now.