FanPost

Statistical breakdown: Diego Costa vs. Romelu Lukaku, his ideal replacement

Chris Brunskill/Getty Images

Or why confirmation bias is preventing us from forgiving him and realizing how beneficial Romelu Lukaku would be for the Chelsea side next season. The premise here will be that Costa leaves during the summer, otherwise there's no reason to buy Lukaku in my opinion. But if Costa does leave, I think Lukaku gives us the best option of all of the other young forwards out there. He ticks the following boxes:

  • Proven PL Experience
  • Proven goal scorer over multiple seasons
  • Mainly plays as a lone forward, so similar to our current style
  • Home Grown benefit
  • Familiarity with club

There are some concerns as well:

  • Is his work rate good enough for top level success?
  • Can he be successful in the CL for Chelsea?
  • Can he score goals at the same rate when facing defenses aimed at parking the bus and playing for the draw?
  • Will he start talking of playing somewhere else if things aren't going his way?

Now, the biggest way to see if Lukaku will be good for us is to compare him to our current forward. After all, if it ain't broke, don't fix it, but if you have to replace some parts you want as close to the same or better parts as possible. When we look at the two forwards, Costa and Lukaku, by the numbers, they have a few differences, but they have a LOT of similarities. Let's take a look at some of those numbers.

First, since their matches and minutes are similar, some quick total numbers, from Squawka:

Total_Numbers.0.png

As you can see, Lukaku has a few more key passes, a lot less total passes, but those are mainly backward passes. He's created a few more chances, he's taken a few less shots, but his accuracy is a little higher. He also shoots a bit more from outside the box. He's won a LOT more aerial duels, which isn't surprising, he's a big boy, but he also gets fouled a lot less. Otherwise, fairly similar.

Let's look at some PER 90 numbers, first from Squawka:

Per_90_Numbers.0.png

Similar metrics from above, but a bit more detail, and it's a little easier to read when looking at the PER 90 numbers, to see how big of a difference some of those metric values are. 5 more key passes, for example, didn't seem like a lot, but when you see it's 1.02 versus 1.25 PER 90, that's a big bump. the Aerial duels won, that's massive. It seemed massive above, but when you look at 1.06 versus 3.52, yeah, big change.

There are some other metrics I found at Whoscored that I want to share as well:

Whoscored_Numbers.0.png

The big benefit here is in looking at types of passes, as well as dribbles, and some defensive metrics. These vary very slightly from Squawka, but the point is to look directionally. All sites gather metrics their own way, but they are consistent enough to look at together. One concern for Lukaku, he actually misses more short passes. It's only 1.7 more, but turnovers are turnovers. He also loses a lot of aerials. Now, he goes for a LOT of aerials, so it's to be expected, and thankfully his success rate is still higher than Costa's. Something I thought interesting, their Offsides rates are almost identical. I thought Lulu was worse about that, so either I wasn't watching close enough in the past or he's cleaned it up. I didn't feel like checking historically to confirm.

Lukaku is the better dribbler, which for most of us should not have been a surprise. the number of dribbles Costa attempts is almost ludicrous, given his success rate, or lack thereof. Also, the number of unsuccessful touches and dispossessions is higher for Costa, too. Starts negating that whole 'bad first touch' myth about Lukaku.

Costa makes more tackles, but gets dribbled past more as well. He also has more interceptions and clearances. These sorts of metrics when talking about forwards could be either hustle-related or based on tactic by the manager. Given we do know that Costa presses more and seems to hustle more, I'll lean it that way. Lukaku needs to show more fire in this department if he wants to lead the Chelsea line.

When looking at the passing numbers, and we see Costa makes more passes, but also a lot more backward passes, and seems to create less chances, I found looking at the xPass chart for the two of them really interesting:

x_Pass_Chart.0.png

They aren't too far apart, but notice that while yes, Costa does complete more passes successfully, he also is taking the easier passes, whereas Lukaku is trying the more complicated passes. I put this square on the shoulders of the talent level of his teammates, and their table position. I think he's trying to do more, and taking more risks because it's needed. I unfortunately don't have access to the data to really dig into this easily. I'd have to compile a LOT of individual sets of passing data, but I have a feeling I'm right on this one. the alternative is that he's trying to make the tricky pass more often, whereas Costa is simply being safe. Neither feels accurate to me.

Some other interesting tidbits, when looking at shot charts. We already know they are similar, with Costa taking more shots and more of them closer, but he's got some channels where he shoots from:

Costa_Shots.0.png

Notice he has different spots or channels he likes to shoot from:

Costa_Shots_2.0.png

It's really interesting how they cluster like that. For example, when we look at Lukaku:

Lukaku_Shots.0.pngLukaku tends to shoot all the way around the goal, but at different distances, like rings:

Lukaku_Shots_2.0.png

My lines are poorly drawn, but limited tools, meh. The point is he shoots from all sides, but at discrete distances, instead of in clustered locations. Could be tactics for the sides, could be the individual player tendencies, who knows. but very interesting.

I also wanted to point out, that while yes, Costa does in fact seem to hustle and press more, they both do a decent job of recovering the ball all around the pitch:

Costa_Recoveries.0.png
Lukaku_Recoveries.0.png

In summary, both of these players seem similar with regard to their talents on the pitch. Costa's the more fierce one, Lukaku has the higher ceiling, both very talented, but both with their flaws. Given Lukaku's age, his accomplishments are phenomenal. And to expect him to not further improve seems to be a naive or biased perspective, as most forwards improve during their prime years. Very few top forwards peak in their early 20s. It's definitely possible, but only in the worst of circumstances. Much how Conte has apparently 'tamed' Costa, and gotten more out of him, I think he can motivate Lukaku too, and thus get the most out of him. Does 80M seem too high a cost for Lukaku? Perhaps, but in today's ballooning football economy, it's probably a 45M fee of three years ago.

Everyone's going to have their own 'perspective', but it's important to not let confirmation bias cloud your judgement, and to properly rate players looking objectively at their talents, their flaws, their abilities, their potentials. It's criminal, I think, to summarily dismiss Lukaku as not being capable of entering our side. His curriculum vitae is strong enough to at the very least merit a solid constructive discussion about the topic.

Lastly, here are videos showing goals scored, for the visual 'eye-test' perspective.

All goals 2015/16 - Lukaku:

All 22 goals/assists 2016/17 - Lukaku:

All 78 goals for Lukaku at Everton:

Diego Costa - First 50 goals for Chelsea:

First 12 goals for Costa 2016/17:

I found this video interesting, a little documentary on Youtube on Lulu (Disclaimer, no connection to the person that made it, just found it interesting to watch):

Also, a little documentary on Costa's rise at Atlético Madrid:

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.