FanPost

Oscar: What does Mourinho want?

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Oscar celebrates scoring against FC Basel in September 2013 - Ian Walton

In light of a recent Fanpost on Oscar, our no. 11 appears to be a player who divides opinion concerning his role in the team. Naturally, people's opinions are subjective to biases (this is not a criticism of anyone, simply a natural tendency), with the most obvious being that we are prone to judging individual player performance on goals scored - a tendency most painfully aware, in my opinion, in the community's take on Willian. I personally believe that our (now only) afro-haired Brazilian is criminally underrated, but that's another story. Back to topic, being a bit of a stats-fanatic, I thought I would try to provide a numbers-based analysis from which to encourage further discussion.

Oscar played in 47 games, for a total of 3141 minutes, in all competitions for Chelsea during the 2013-14 season. His minutes total trailed only Eden Hazard at 3940, for all attacking midfielders, showing Mourinho's clear preference for him as a first-choice player. The Brazilian started the season in scintillating form, scoring 6 of his 11 goals by late November, and forcing reigning two-time player of the year Juan Mata out of the starting line-up. I feel that this is where all analysis of Oscar must start: Oscar and Mata are both brilliant players but with distinctly different playing styles, and Mourinho's benching and eventual selling of Mata was a clear indication of what he expected from his number 10. Here are the numbers for the two:

OVERALL AND SHOOTING STATS

Name

G

Mins

+/-

T/90

Gls

Ast

Mins/G

S/90

SoT/90

SoT%

OSCAR

47

3141

+1.35

67.2

11

6

286

2.87

0.86

30.0%

Juan MATA

17

1117

+0.81

75.3

1

2

1117

1.29

0.32

25.0%

Note on Stats: G=Games, Mins=Minutes, +/-=Difference in Goals Scored/Conceded with player on pitch, converted to per 90 minutes, T=Touches, Gls=Goals, Ast=Assists, S=Shots, SoT=Shots on Target

The shooting stats reveal what most of us already know: Oscar shoots more than twice as much as Mata, and is much more of a goal-scorer than the Spaniard. The small sample size for Mata does skew things considerably, but the ratios of Oscar's S/90 and SoT/90 to Mata's are 2.22 and 2.68 respectively, while the Mins/G ratio is 3.91 in the Brazilian's favour. While this may be testament to better finishing ability on Oscar's part (Oscar can finish comfortably of both feet, whereas Mata has a heavy preference for his left), I would argue instead that this simply means that Oscar gets into more advanced positions, thus allowing him to convert more of his shots. Mata scored 88% of his goals with his left foot, with 83% from inside the box and with an average of 1.56 players ahead of the ball for the 30 non-set-piece goals he scored in his Chelsea career. On the other hand, 7 of Oscar's 11 (64%) goals last season came from inside the area, with an average of 0.90 players ahead of him (for the 10 goals excluding the free-kick against Stoke in the FA Cup) and 4 cases in which he was the furthest player forward. Mata rarely looked to create shooting opportunities for himself and more for his team-mates, his goals more a result of excellent positioning and anticipation. Oscar certainly has the ability to unleash from range and has shown that he can score effectively off counter attacks where he is the furthest player forward (particularly useful as he is often one of the players left outside the area when defending corners, as was Mata). Another interesting statistic is the +/- per90, in which Oscar led all Chelsea players at +1.35, while Mata was 4th worst and below team average (+54 Goal Difference in 57 Games = +0.95) at +0.81. This suggests that the team performed better - and by a considerable margin - with Oscar than with Mata, and barring a handful of games in which Mata played off the right wing, the two were used almost exclusively in direct competition with each other. Mata is hardly the fastest of players, and his tendency to turn around and slow down play due to his preference to find a killer pass with his left foot did not appear to suit a Mourinho system - to say nothing of his defensive work rate that became a hot topic of discussion following Mata's departure to Manchester United.

DEFENSIVE AND OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION STATS

Name

Drb/90

WF/90

TO/90

Tck/90

Int/90

OSCAR

1.00

1.20

1.86

2.72

0.34

Juan MATA

1.05

1.29

1.53

1.37

0.32

Note on Stats: Drb=Dribbles, WF=Times Fouled, TO=Turnovers, Tck=Tackles, Int=Interceptions

For all the differences in playing style, Oscar and Mata recorded remarkably similar numbers for dribbles, times fouled and interceptions. Oscar turns the ball over slightly more, but that is understandable considering his tendencies to get further forward, and particularly to run at the defence. The one category that really outlines the whole "defensive contribution" debate is the Tck/90 stat, where Oscar dwarfs Mata at 2.72 tackles per 90 minutes, almost double Mata's 1.37 per 90. Not only impressive for an attacking midfielder, Oscar trailed only Azpilicueta at an otherworldly 3.61, Matic at 3.26, and Ramires at 3.12 - players who in the cases of Dave and the spider (and arguably Ramires too), whose primary role is to win the ball.

PASSING STATS

Name

KP/90

Ast/90

Ast/KP

KP/P

P/90

P%

TB/90

ATB/90

ATB%

OSCAR

1.95

0.17

8.8%

4.2%

46.8

82.0%

0.17

0.11

66.7%

Juan MATA

3.30

0.16

4.9%

5.7%

57.5

89.0%

0.48

0.40

83.3%

Note on Stats: KP=Key Passes (Passes that led to shots), Ast=Assists, P=Passes, TB=Through Balls, ATB=Accurate Through Balls

By far Mata's most valuable asset is his ability to create chances with his incredible vision and passing ability. His 3.30 KP/90 was by far the highest in the team (Willian was second at 2.83) and he was the only player to attempt more than 0.30 TB/90, perhaps a reason why we struggled to break down teams who "parked the bus" as we were unable to get in behind them. While it was said that Mata underperformed and/or struggled to adapt to Mourinho's system, I would argue that there was an element of bad luck to it - his 4.9% Ast/KP rate was the lowest among all midfielders and strikers, with most averaging at around 7-8%. This seems to indicate that his teammates were simply not converting the chances that Mata created, and I believe that Mata's Ast/KP rate should be higher than most, due to his ability to play through balls, which yield much better shooting opportunities than other assisting passes. Essentially Chelsea did not suffer from selling Mata this season, as all that matters in the end is the number of goals produced as opposed to the number that should have been - the two players had almost identical Ast/90 numbers.

ROLE FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON

The comparison with Mata paints an outline of what Mourinho wants from his central attacking midfielder - an all action type of player, capable of scoring, passing and defending. Personally I believe that Oscar should sit slightly deeper this season in a midfield three with Matic and Fabregas and the team should return to the 4-3-3 that was so successful during Mourinho's first spell at the club which yielded back-to-back Premier League titles. Oscar lags behind Hazard (2.56 KP/90) and Willian (2.83 KP/90) in chance creation and this is essential for an attacking midfielder. Returning to the 4-3-3 should lessen the defensive burden on Hazard and whoever plays on the right wing - either Willian or Schürrle - and a midfield trio of Matic, Fabregas, and Oscar should provide enough defensive balance and offensive contribution. Oscar's 2.87 S/90 can help to alleviate the decline in midfield goal-scoring prowess that has resulted from the departure of Lampard (2.64 S/90) while his defensive contribution (2.72 Tck/90, 0.34 Int/90) is on-par with most central midfielders. Matic is a defensive rock and his 3.26 Tck/90 and 1.81 Int/90 are outstanding - add in the rare ability to play through balls from deep (0.17 ATB/90) and he provides a solid foundation in front of the defence. Fabregas' passing ability should give what the team has lacked since the departure of Mata, and his years at Arsenal should erase any doubt over whether or not Cesc can cut it in central midfield in the Premier League (Fabregas' stats from Barcelona are deliberately omitted as Barcelona's distinct tiki-taka playing style causes them to be statistical outliers in almost every category). Still 22, Oscar will only continue to improve, and one does not simply doubt the knowledge of Mourinho - the man is a footballing genius and his decisions will lead Chelsea to glory more often than not. While his HG status makes him an extremely desirable addition to the squad, I also believe that this is why signing Paul Pogba is not a necessity. I would have much rather have seen the club make a strong run at Antoine Griezmann (who recently signed for Atletico) as he is a rare left-footed attacking midfielder that would have fit perfectly in our system. I have a bad feeling that we may go after him in a couple of years when his price has risen considerably, but we do have a considerable number of attacking options at the club already and hopefully Salah will put that explosive pace to better use.

I would love to make further use of my stats database to encourage discussion here on WAGNH. Any feedback/constructive criticism would be greatly appreciated, and if you enjoyed this, please take a look at my earlier post on Fernando Torres and let me know who you would like to see analysed next!

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

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