Hello from a visiting Villa fan. I'd like to drop a mathematical anomaly on you if you'd be willing to spare me a minute.
As you are well aware, if Aston Villa can pull off the win or draw against Manchester City on Wednesday, it means that Chelsea suddenly have the chance to win the title again if things fall their way. But, to be fair, it's a pretty big long shot. So long, in fact, that the current odds on Paddy Power are 300/1. If, on a whim, you think that Chelsea can win the league and you've got an extra pound laying around, why not put it on there? Worst case scenario, you lose a pound. Best case, you gain £299.
Or is that the best case?
If you think that Chelsea can win, you also agree to the following premises:
- Liverpool will lose to Newcastle (I'm ignoring the chance that Chelsea can win by 8 goals and overcome a Liverpool draw)
- Aston Villa will get a win or draw against Manchester City
- West Ham United will get a win or draw against Manchester City (City can earn no more than one point for Chelsea to win, so Villa and WHU are guaranteed to each pick up a win or draw)
- Chelsea will beat Cardiff
- Chelsea to win the title: 300/1
- Aston Villa to win or draw: 5/1
- West Ham to win or draw: 9/2
- Liverpool to lose (Newcastle to win): 12/1
- Chelsea to beat Cardiff: 4/9
So, if you really think it's worth it to drop £1 on Chelsea to win the league, be smart and go all-out. That's assuming you'll be able to hoodwink any bookie into letting you place the bet!