FanPost

Chelsea Chances of an EPL Title Next Year


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via i.telegraph.co.uk

Statistically we aren't far away from winning the title

I think it suffices to say that, for us as Chelsea fans, last season was nothing short of a disaster, I know this season we consider it a utter failure, but statistically speaking we are not that far away from a Premier League title. Since the 92-93 season the average criteria to win the title is:

86 points

80 goals scored

29 goals against

This however, is the average, which when talking about data, is pretty useless. What we are really interested in is the standard deviation. The S.D. is basically how far apart the data is, and when used to construct a bell curve, can determine the points needed to achieve a certain probability. What does all this mean? Well basically we can determine the criteria to win the league at a certain probability. I’ve used a 0.75 probability. Meaning we would be happy to have a 75% chance of winning the league. If that is the case then the criteria to have a 75% chance to win the league is:

90 points

86 goals scored

34 goals against

In this season we managed

75 points

75 goals scored

39 goals against

Therefore, stats wise, we aren't that far off winning the title despite what everyone says. Obviously stats don’t tell the whole story but with a change of manager, bringing back the Kraken and perhaps with a formation change I believe we will be in with a very good chance of winning the title next year. C’MON BLUES.

-WhatstheMata (who after his first fan post is feeling pretty awesome)

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

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