FanPost

Can Chelsea finish in the Top 4?

It's going to be hard, but entirely possible.

Since 2003, Chelsea have been challenging for the Premier League title. In recent years, our standards have lowered, and we've only been challenging for a place in the following season's Champions League. It's going to be difficult this year, but history tells us it's possible.

After 30 games, Chelsea sit in 4th place with 55 points, behind Tottenham Hotspur on 57 points (who have played an extra game), and ahead of 5th place Arsenal, who have 53 points. It is extremely close at the moment, with each place being separated by just 2 points.

Here is a table of the 4th-place team in every Premier League season since 2001-02, with the number of points they had after 30 games, the number of points they had at the end of the season, and the difference.

Season

4th-Place Team

Points after 30 games

Points at the end of the season

Difference

01-02

Newcastle

56

71

15

02-03

Chelsea

51

67

16

03-04

Liverpool

46

60

14

04-05

Everton

51

61

10

05-06

Arsenal

50

67

14

06-07

Arsenal

55

68

13

07-08

Liverpool

59

76

17

08-09

Arsenal

55

72

17

09-10

Tottenham Hotspur

55

70

15

10-11

Arsenal

59

68

9

11-12

Tottenham Hotspur

55

69

14

Average:

53.818

68.091

14

Chelsea are currently on 55 points. In the past, 2 teams have been on 55 points after 30 games, on 2 separate occasions each. These were Arsenal (2006-07 and 2008-09) and Tottenham Hotspur (2009-10 and 2011-12). The most points earned from that stage until the end of the season was 17, by Arsenal in 2008-09, who finished on 72 points.

Let's say Chelsea need 17 points from their remaining 8 games to finish in the Top 4. Can we do it?

Here are our final 8 fixtures:

Sunderland (H), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (A), Swansea City (H), Manchester United (A), Aston Villa (A), Everton (H).

I'd expect wins in at least 4 of these games: Sunderland, Fulham, Swansea City, and Aston Villa. That's 12 points.

We certainly can beat Everton, and depending on how Liverpool are at that stage of the season (because of their inconsistency), we could defeat them as well, but let's say we get a draw. That's 16 points.

I don't expect anything at all from the trip to Manchester United, but the biggest game of the remaining will be against Tottenham Hotspur. This match will be huge, and we definitely could beat them. But again, let's say we draw. There are the 17 points.

I'm not saying we're going to need 17 points, but in a worst-case scenario, we will. With the way our season has been going and our inconsistency under Rafa Benitez, we might not even win some of the games we're expected to. Tottenham and Arsenal will definitely drop points from now until the end of the season, so we should be able to guarantee Champions League football before the end of the season. All in all, a place in the Top 4 is certainly attainable, and may not be as difficult as we all think it will be.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join We Ain't Got No History

You must be a member of We Ain't Got No History to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at We Ain't Got No History. You should read them.

Join We Ain't Got No History

You must be a member of We Ain't Got No History to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at We Ain't Got No History. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9353_tracker