FanPost

A Statistical look at Chelsea Pre-season Friendlies

The pre-season friendlies for Chelsea for 2012-2013 season are over provided you don’t consider FA Community shield as a pre-season friendly. The Blues played 5: Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 3. The actual results are shown below:

Seattle Sounders

Chelsea

2 – 4

Paris Saint-Germain

Chelsea

1 – 1

MLS All Stars

Chelsea

3 – 2

A C Milan

Chelsea

1 – 0

Brighton

Chelsea

3 – 1

The picture does not seemingly look nice. After giving allowance for the players involved in Euro 2012, London Olympics, the reactions among Chelsea fans were mixed. On the one hand there are many in WAGNH who have expressed their unhappiness / displeasure / anger in the way we have played and on the other hand we have Graham & co trying to tell (multiple times) that the goal for preseason is the gaining of fitness and avoidance of serious injury. This divergence of thought set me thinking and I went back to data for the last five seasons, looked at our performance in the pre-season friendlies and tried to find out if any statistical relationship existed between performance during the pre -season friendlies and the number of trophies won during the season. The results are interesting.

Performance during Pre-season (2007-2008 season till now)

The results of the pre-season friendlies for each of the past five seasons are given below. Along with the results, how Chelsea performed during the season in the Premier league, Champions league, FA cup, League Cup and FA Community shield wherever applicable along with the actual trophy count for the year is mentioned.

A. 2007-2008 Season

Matches with Results:

Chelsea

America

2 – 1

Chelsea

Suwon Bluewings

1 – 0

L A Galaxy

Chelsea

0 – 1

Feyenoord

Chelsea

1 – 1

Rangers

Chelsea

2 – 0

Brondby

Chelsea

0 – 2

Performance in the season

League

Champions League

F A Cup

League Cup

FA Charity Shield

Trophies / Actual Position

2nd

Runners-up

6th Round

Runners-up

Lost to UTD

Trophy Count

0

B. 2008-2009 Season:

Matches with Results

Guangzhou Pharmaceutical

Chelsea

0 – 4

Chengdu Blades

Chelsea

0 – 7

Malayasia Select XI

Chelsea

0 – 2

Locomotiv Moscow

Chelsea

1-1 (5-4 penalties)

Milan

Chelsea

0 – 5

Performance in the season

League

Champions League

F A Cup

League Cup

Trophies / Actual Position

3rd

Semi-Finals

Winners

4th Round

Trophy Count

1

C. 2009-2010 season:

Matches with Results

Seattle Sounders FC

Chelsea

0 – 2

Chelsea

Internazionale

2 – 0

Milan

Chelsea

1 – 2

Chelsea

America

2 – 0

Reading

Chelsea

2 – 2

Performance in the season

League

Champions League

F A Cup

League Cup

FA Charity Shield

Trophies / Actual Position

Winner (1st)

Round of 16

Winners

5th Round

Winners

Trophy Count

3

D. 2010-2011 season

Matches with Results:

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

0 – 1

Ajax

Chelsea

3 – 1

Eintracht Frankfurt

Chelsea

2 – 1

Hamburg SV

Chelsea

2 – 1

Reading

Chelsea

2 – 2

Performance in the season

League

Champions League

F A Cup

League Cup

FA Charity Shield

Trophies / Actual Position

2nd

Quarter Finals

4th Round

3rd Round

Lost to UTD

Trophy Count

0

E. 2011-2012 season

Matches with Results:

Chelsea

Wycombe Wanderers

3 – 0

Portsmouth

Chelsea

0 – 1

Malaysia XI

Chelsea

0 – 1

Thailand XI

Chelsea

0 – 4

Rangers

Chelsea

1 – 3

Kitchee

Chelsea

0 – 4

Chelsea

Aston Villa

2 – 0

Performance in the season

League

Champions League

F A Cup

League Cup

FA Charity Shield

Trophies / Actual Position

6th

Winners

Winners

Quarter Final

N.A

Trophy Count

2

Summary

In the below table I have tried to put together the summary data regarding Win % in Pre-season games and the trophies won during the season.

Season

No. of pre-season games

Won

Lost

Drawn

Win %

Trophies Won

2007-2008

6

4

1

1

66.67

0

2008-2009

5

4

0

1

80

1

2009-2010

5

4

0

1

80

3

2010-2011

5

1

3

1

20

0

2011-2012

7

7

0

0

100

2

2012-2013

5

1

3

1

20

??????

· A win% above 80% in three of the five seasons has resulted in additions to the trophy cabinet

· This pre-season results are identical to the 2010-2011 pre-season and that year we ended with Zero trophies.

· A good pre-season win% tends to have a positive correlation with the end of season trophy haul notwithstanding the many pangs suffered during the season like stuttering form, change of manager and appointment of interim / caretaker managers.

I am fully aware of the low sample size (only 5 preseasons) and also the multiple variables / dynamics to be included and hence will stop here at my attempt to find more insight. I leave it to the readers to interpret the data based on their lines of thinking.

Caution / Disclaimer / Conclusion:

Fans should not read too much into these data. Statistics can be twisted to prove / support different arguments. If the goal of pre-season is to regain fitness and avoid any injuries then Chelsea has definitely succeeded in that aspect. Also this pre-season had limited participation from EURO 2012 players, No participation from the Olympic tournament players (OSCAR , MATA) and more importantly the transfer market is not closed yet. There could be few more quality signings before the transfer window closes and let’s not forget we signed MATA in the last week of August.

The more important use of this article I feel is for the fans to get at one place all the results of our pre-season matches over the past five seasons. PERIOD.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

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